Methodology and Quality Update

Latest Update on Methodology and Quality

23/12/2025

Statistical Presentation

Data description

The Business Confidence Survey presents perceptions and expectations regarding future developments in the non-oil business sector, based on survey opinions related to outputs, inputs, employment, and business development or expansion activities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, it aims to:
The Business Confidence Index is an index derived from a survey conducted to collect data on the main characteristics, as follows:
•    Inputs.
•    Outputs.
•    Employment.
•    Business development or expansion activities.
The data is also used to provide the following economic indicators:
•    Overall Business Confidence Index.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Industry Sector.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Services Sector.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Construction Sector.

Classifications

The National Classification of Economic Activities (ISIC4) is applied to the Business Confidence Survey:
It is a statistical classification based on the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC4), used to describe the productive activities of an establishment.
The classifications are available on GASTAT website:  www.stats.gov.sa

Statistical concepts and definitions

Terms and concepts for Business Confidence Survey:
•    Overall Business Confidence Index:
It is a leading indicator of perceptions and expectations regarding future developments in the non-oil business sector, based on survey opinions related to outputs, inputs, employment, and business development or expansion activities.
It covers all economic activities covered by the survey.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Industry Sector:
It is the average balance of the survey questions in the industry sector related to expectations for the current and future periods regarding outputs, inputs, employment, and business development or expansion activities.
It covers economic activities in the industry sector according to the ISIC4 classification, as follows:
-    Mining and quarrying.
-    Manufacturing.
-    Electricity and gas supply.
-    Water supply, sewerage, and waste management activities.

•    Business Confidence Index for the Services Sector:
It is the average balance of the survey questions in the services sector related to expectations for the current and future periods regarding outputs, inputs, employment, and business development or expansion activities.
It covers economic activities in the services sector according to the ISIC4 classification, as follows:
-    Wholesale and retail trade.
-    Accommodation and food service activities.
-    Financial and insurance activities.
-    Information and communication.
-    Transportation and storage.
-    Real estate activities.
-    Arts, entertainment, and recreation.

•    Business Confidence Index for the Construction Sector:
It is the average balance of the survey questions in the construction sector related to expectations for the current and future periods regarding outputs, inputs, employment, and business development or expansion activities.
It covers economic activities in the construction sector according to the classification, as follows ISIC4:
-    Construction.

•    Inputs:
They are elements, products, or technologies that are required to be available in advance to carry out a specific process. They may be obtained from within or outside the establishment, and the outputs of one process may serve as inputs for another process.
•    Output:
They are goods or services produced within the establishment that become available for final use outside the establishment.
•    Employment:
It is a set of procedures undertaken by the establishment to attract qualified and competent candidates who are capable of contributing to the achievement of the establishment’s objectives and increasing its productivity.
•    Business development or expansion activities:
It is the identification of opportunities and their transformation into actual businesses, and the implementation of growth strategies.

Data sources

Business Confidence Index statistics rely on the main data source:
Business Confidence Survey.
The main variables published for the survey data are:
•    Overall Business Confidence Index.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Industry Sector.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Services Sector.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Construction Sector.
•    Monthly change rate of the Overall Business Confidence Index.
•    Monthly change rate of the Business Confidence Index for the Industry Sector.
•    Monthly change rate of the Business Confidence Index for the Services Sector.
•    Monthly change rate of the Business Confidence Index for the Construction Sector.

Designing the data collection tool

The Business Confidence Survey questionnaire was carefully designed to avoid unnecessary details that could negatively affect data quality and response rates. It was prepared and developed by specialists from the Business and Trade Statistics Department at the General Authority for Statistics and was reviewed by department experts. Additionally, it was shared with relevant entities to obtain their views and comments.

Questionnaire test (cognitive test)

Cognitive testing is defined as a qualitative scientific research method and is considered a fundamental stage in the development of statistical survey questionnaires. It aims to assess the clarity of the questions, concepts, and terms used before actual data collection.
These tests help ensure the soundness of wording, the accuracy of response options, and the extent to which participants are able to provide the required information. They also contribute to identifying sensitive questions and assessing respondents’ willingness to disclose such information. Based on the test results, the questionnaire is improved, and any shortcomings are addressed to ensure the quality and accuracy of the data.
The cognitive test was conducted on a number of questionnaire items based on the pillars of cognitive testing. Several observations related to the following pillars were identified (wording, comprehension, and clarity), and accordingly, the final questionnaire was re-engineered.

Statistical population

The statistical population of the Business Confidence Survey consists of all main establishments in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that engage in all economic activities, except for agriculture, forestry, and fishing activities, according to the ISIC4 classification.

Sample Design

The sample was designed with a two-stage stratified cluster systematic random sampling method, in which in the first stage a random sample was selected from the primary sampling units (counting areas) for each stratum of the adopted sampling design.
Stratification:
To increase the efficiency of the sample and improve its representation of the target population, establishments in the sampling frame were classified into homogeneous strata. In order to obtain more accurate results compared to a simple random sample of the same size, and to provide a sufficient number of establishments at publishable levels, the stratification was applied across two levels as follows: 
•    Stratification at the 2-digit level of economic activity (ISIC4).
•    Stratification by establishment size categories, which are:

-    Micro enterprises:
Establishments with 1 to 5 employees.
-    Small enterprises:
Establishments with 6 to 49 employees.
-    Medium enterprises:
Establishments with 50 to 249 employees.
-    Large enterprises:
Establishments with more than 249 employees.
Size of sample:

  The sample size was calculated at the level of each stratum, representing the field of study (economic activity at the first level — section — of the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities, ISIC4).
Subsequently, the resulting sample size calculated for each study domain (ISIC level 1) was allocated across establishment size classes and then to the second level of the International Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities (ISIC4) using the Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) allocation method. This allocation method reduces the variance of weighting factors, thereby decreasing the variance of estimates, and increasing design efficiency. In addition, the sample size at the study domain level (ISIC level 1) was adjusted to a minimum acceptable number of establishments to ensure an adequate response size for publishing accurate estimates of indicators at the dissemination level (ISIC level 1) of economic activity according to ISIC4. Moreover, all large establishments were included in the sample with a 100% selection probability due to their importance.
Table1: Targeted activities at the ISIC1 (Division) include: 

Statistical unit (sampling unit)

The statistical unit in the business confidence survey is the establishment.

Data collection

Business Confidence Survey data is collected through:
Data for the Business Confidence Survey are collected through computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI), in addition to computer-assisted web interviews (CAWI). The data are then stored in the Authority’s databases after undergoing verification and review processes in accordance with approved statistical methods and recognized quality standards, with reference made to the data source in cases where errors are detected, or remarks are identified in the data. In addition, the completeness of key establishment information, such as the number of employees and economic activity, is ensured, and any missing information is completed using the administrative data sources available at the Authority.

Data collection frequency 

The data collection process for the Business Confidence Survey is carried out monthly.

Reference area

The Business Confidence Index covers all (13) administrative regions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Reference period (time reference)

The reference period for the Business Confidence Index is the current month during which the data are collected, for example: For the November 2025 index, data are collected during November itself, given the nature of the survey, which measures current expectations for the reference month (“November expectations”) and future expectations for the following month (“December expectations”). Subsequently, November data are processed toward the end of the same month, and the final index for November is produced and published in the following month, December 2025. 

Base period

Not applicable.

Measurement unit

The Business Confidence Index in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is calculated using the Diffusion Index method, which is measured on a scale ranging from 0 to 100. The index reading is classified into three levels as follows:
•    Negative level (0 - 49):
It indicates a negative trend or a state of pessimism in the current business conditions among establishments, with pessimistic expectations regarding future performance.
•    Neutral level (50):
It represents a neutral trend and stable expectations regarding current and future business conditions.
•    Positive level (51-100):
It indicates a positive trend or a state of optimism in the current business conditions among establishments, with optimistic expectations regarding future performance.

Time coverage

The data are available from 2023 to 2025. 

Publication frequency

The results of the Business Confidence Survey are published monthly in accordance with the approved statistical plan.

Statistical processing

Error detection

Ensuring the completeness of key establishment information, such as the number of employees and economic activity, with any missing information completed using the administrative records available at the Authority.
In addition, the completeness of questionnaire data is verified, and missing values are treated in accordance with approved and recognized statistical methods.

Data integration and matching from multiple sources 

Not applicable, as the calculation of the Business Confidence Index relies on the questionnaires completed by establishments participating in the Business Confidence Survey.

Imputation and calibration

Compensation (for non-response cases or incomplete datasets): 
The approach used for imputation in the Business Confidence Index, whether for establishments with non-response or missing data for specific variables. Reinterviews are allowed to obtain missing respondent data or to address cases of non-response. Missing data or non-response are then addressed by evaluating them in accordance with a scientific methodology to estimate the results, based on several considerations, including an acceptable range of missing data and estimates derived from stratum-level data.
Weighting:
In preparing the weights, the Business Confidence Index relies on weighting establishments using a fixed weight for economic activity that represents the contribution of the activity to the total value added of the targeted activities, in addition to the number of employees in the establishment. This reflects the relative importance of the activity and the size of establishments within the sample.
Non-response weight adjustment:
The final results of the index are calculated using fixed weights for establishments based on the weight of economic activity, which represents the contribution of the activity to the total value added of the targeted activities, in addition to the number of employees in the establishment. Accordingly, the results are based on responding establishments, with an acceptable range of missing data estimated to ensure adequate representation of the sample in the final results.

Seasonal adjustments

Not applicable, only final results will be published. 

Adjustment of preliminary results 

Not applicable, only final results will be published.

Resources used

Quality dimensions

Suitability

A criterion that indicates the extent to which the product meets users’ needs.

User needs 

Internal users at the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) of the Business Confidence Index:
•    National accounts.
There are several external users and beneficiaries of the Business Confidence Index indicators, including:
•    Government entities.
•    private sector
•    Researchers and interested.
The key main variables utilized by external users are:
•    Overall Business Confidence Index.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Industry Sector.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Services Sector.
•    Business Confidence Index for the Construction Sector.

Completeness 

Non-oil Business Confidence Index data are based on a single main data source, namely the Business Confidence Survey data, relying on the questionnaires completed monthly by establishments participating in the survey. These questionnaires provide comprehensive information on the overall economic situation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The data are available in complete form, with consideration given to the comprehensiveness of indicators to cover all targeted economic activities.

Accuracy and reliability 

A standard that measures how close the calculations or estimates are to the exact or true values that reflect reality.

Overall accuracy 

•    The data collected is improved through the researchers, that have been selected according to a set of practical and objective criteria and training program related to the field of work.
•    Alert, prevention, and correction rules are applied during the data collection process on the electronic questionnaire for the Business Confidence Index Survey to improve data quality.
•    Internal quality standards are applied to the data received from the field to ensure their consistency and accuracy.
•    The internal consistency of the data is checked before it is finalized.
•    The links between variables are checked and coherence between different data series is confirmed.

Timeliness and punctuality 

A standard that measures the time gap between the availability of information and the occurrence of the event.
However, timeliness reflects the time difference between the date of data publication and the target date when it is actually published.

Timeliness 

The General Authority for Statistics is committed to applying internationally recognized standards regarding the announcement, clarification of the time of publishing statistics on its official website, as outlined in the statistical calendar, as well as adhering to the announced time of publication. In the event of any delay, updates will be provided accordingly.

Punctuality 

Publication is carried out in accordance with the publication dates specified in the statistical calendar for the Business Confidence Index, as published on the General Authority for Statistics website.
The data are available at the expected time, as scheduled in the statistical release calendar, If the publication is delayed, reasons shall be provided.

Coherence and comparability

A standard that refers to the necessity of internal and temporal consistency of statistics, their logical coherence, and their comparability and integration across different regions and sources.

Comparability - geographical

Business Confidence Index indicators are internationally comparable. At the national level, the index is considered a unified indicator and cannot be compared across administrative regions.

Comparability - over time 

The survey started in 2023 as a monthly survey and provides a consistent and comparable data series over time.

Coherence- Cross domain

The data are consistent, as their consistency is verified against other statistics. These procedures contribute to ensuring integration and harmonization among statistics, thereby enhancing data reliability and the quality of the analysis based on them.

Coherence- Sub-annual and annual statistics 

Not applicable, as Business Confidence Index indicators are published monthly only.

Coherence- National Accounts 

The published Business Confidence Index indicators are consistent with the Business Confidence indicators used in the National Accounts. Business Confidence Index indicators are considered one of the inputs to the outputs of the National Accounts.

Coherence- Internal 

Business Confidence Index indicators have full internal coherence, as they are all based on the same set of accurate data and are calculated using the same estimation methods.

Accessibility and clarity

The ability of users to access data, the availability of detailed or aggregated data, as well as the availability of the methodology and quality report.

Press releases

The announcements for each publication are available on the statistical calendar as mentioned in 10.1. The press releases can be viewed on the website of GASTAT on the link: 
Press release

Publications

GASTAT issues publications and reports on the Business Confidence Index regularly within a pre-prepared dissemination plan, and they are published on GASTAT’s website. GASTAT is keen to publish its publications in a way that serves all users of different types, including publications in different formats that contain (publication tables, data graphs, indicators, methodology and quality report, and used questionnaires) in both English and Arabic.
The results of the Business Confidence Index survey are available at:
Publications

Online database

The data is published on the statistical database:
GASTAT (stats.gov.sa)

Microdata accessibility

Accurate data is unit-level disaggregated data obtained from multiple sources such as sample statistical surveys, general population and housing censuses, and administrative systems, providing detailed information about the characteristics of individuals, families, business entities, and geographical areas, supporting the construction and development of statistical indicators and scientific research.
Different types of microdata files to meet diverse information needs:
•    Public use: 
It consists of sets of records containing information on individuals, households, or business entities anonymized in such a way that the respondent cannot be identified either directly, such as by name, address, contact number, identity number, etc., or indirectly (by combining different – especially rare – characteristics of respondents), such as age, occupation, education, etc.
•    Scientific use:
These files are created based on specific methodologies upon the request of data users to extract datasets with defined characteristics for use in strategic studies, decision-making, and scientific research purposes for individuals, households, and companies, while ensuring that they do not contain any direct identifiers and are subject to confidentiality protection controls.
Qualified users who meet the standards and procedures of confidentiality protection can access the files of scientific use of accurate data through the platform "ITAHA" of the General Authority for Statistics, while the most sensitive data for use is shared by visiting the accurate data laboratory within a secure environment managed by the Authority.

References and standards

The concepts, definitions, and classifications of the Business Confidence Index are based on the following international standards:
•    Handbook (Economic Tendency Surveys) issued by the United Nations in 2015.
Microsoft Word - ETS Handbook - for typesetting 15 March 2016.docx 
•    Handbook (The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys) issued by the European Commission. 
bcs_user_guide.pdf

Quality assurance

GASTAT declares that it considers the following principles: Impartiality, ensuring that the statistical product is user-oriented, maintaining the quality of processes and outputs, enhancing the effectiveness of statistical operations, and reducing the burden on respondents. 
Data is validated through procedures and quality controls that are applied during the process at various stages, such as data entry, data collection, and other final controls.

Quality assessment

GASTAT performs all statistical activities according to a national model (Generic Statistical Business Process Model—GSBPM). According to the GSBPM, the final phase of statistical activities is overall evaluation using information gathered in each phase or sub-process. This information is used to prepare the evaluation report, which outlines all the quality issues related to the specific statistical activity and serves as input for improvement actions.

Confidentiality

Confidentiality - Policy

According to Royal Decree No. 23 dated 07/12/1379, data must always be kept confidential and must be used by GASTAT for statistical purposes only.
Therefore, the data is protected in the data servers of GASTAT.

Confidentiality - Data Treatment

Data of SMEs survey are presented in right tables in order to summarize, understand, as well as extract their results. Moreover, to compare them with other data, and to obtain statistical significance about the selected study population. However, referring to such data indicated in tables is much easier than going back to check the original questionnaire that may include some data like names and addresses of individuals, and names of data providers, which violates data confidentiality of statistical data.
“Anonymity of data” is one of the most important procedures. To keep data confidential,
GASTAT removed information on individual persons, households, or business entities such a way that the respondent cannot be identified either directly such as: (name, address, contact number, identity number etc.) or indirectly (by combining different - especially rare - characteristics of respondents) such as: (age, occupation, education etc.).

Dissemination policy

Statistical calendar

The Business Confidence Index has been included in the statistical calendar.
Statistical Calendar

User access

One of the objectives of the General Authority for Statistics is to better meet its clients’ needs; therefore, it provides them immediately with the publication results once the Business Confidence Index results publication is released.
Customer questions and inquiries about the publication and its results are also received through various communication channels, such as:
•    GASTAT official website:  www.stats.gov.sa
•    GASTAT official email address:  info@stats.gov.sa
•    Official visits to GASTAT’s official head office in Riyadh or one of its branches in Saudi Arabia.
•    Official letters.
•    Statistical telephone: (199009).