• Description

• Importance of Population Projections

• Defining the base year

• Review and Evaluation of Population Projections Data

Description:

Population Projections are a number of population estimates that discuss the population size and distribution by age group and gender in the future. This process is the starting point of other sectorial projections. The data given about estimates of population become more important as the demographic decision- and policy-makers' demand soars.
The population projections methodology is deemed to be a crucial pillar for economic, social and demographic planning, along with the development programs meant to raise the community standard of living and to bring about prosperity for its members.

What are Population Projections?

Population projections are estimates for total size of population in the future, and distribution by age group and gender, depending on the results of the population and housing census; in addition to specific assumptions having to do with fertility, mortality and migration rates.

Objectives of the Population Projections:

To provide estimates about the total size, single-year and five-year distribution; with the aim to help developing an appropriate population policy, in addition to the long-term social and economic plans and programs.

Importance of Population Projections:  

The Population Projections become more important as the demand increases to meet the needs of entities in concern of the development planning and follow-up to give reasonable estimates about the total size of population and age distribution in the future depending on reliable scientific methodology. It helps planners assess the current population status, and develop population programs, plans and policies to meet the current and future educational, health and service needs of living. 

Population Projections Data Sources:

The following data shall be available for the population estimates:

• Population Censuses
• Demographic Survey
• Recent administrative records giving data on (births, deaths and migration)

Defining the base year:

The population estimates start in the middle of the census year, which is termed 'the base year'.

Population Projections Methods and Programs:

There are many methods and programs for the population projections: the mathematical and synthetic methods in addition to the ready-made programs including Spectrum program. The synthetic method is a good technique to estimate population and give long-term projections that cover changes in the population growth components (births, deaths and immigration). 
It can be used in creating projections for the Saudi and non-Saudi population according to the available data, taking into account, the special nature of foreign population in the GCC states.

Outputs:  

In addition to the total population, the outputs of the population projections include a number of demographic indicators, for example, the single-year, five-year and the wide-scale population age distribution, the annual growth rate, the crude mortality rate, the crude birth rate, the infant mortality rate (IMR), under-five mortality rate, total fertility rate, and other important indicators.

Review and Evaluation of Population Projections Data: 

• A two-phased thorough review of data and indicators should be carried out after getting the population projections results.
• The first phase is instant as the results of population projections are reviewed and evaluated versus data provided by other sources.
• The second phase is about the future when the outcomes of the population projections are reviewed and evaluated according to the newly adopted population policies or via comparisons that might be held against the expected researches, such as the demographic and specialized studies.