Methodology and Quality Update

Latest Update on Methodology and Quality

29/04/2025

Statistical Presentation

Data description  

The Quarterly GDP statistics present its indicators compared to the same period of the previous year. It includes tables on GDP by economic activities at current prices and using the chain-linked methodology, as well as expenditure components such as government consumption expenditure, private consumption expenditure, capital formation, exports, and imports.
Quarterly GDP statistics are collected based on the main characteristics as follows:
•    Quarterly GDP statistics publication relies on two main data sources:
-    Statistical surveys, conducted by GASTAT.
-   Administrative records, from which data can be obtained on a quarterly basis.
•    Quarterly GDP statistics publication is issued on a quarterly basis.
•    Reference framework for the quarterly GDP statistics is the Quarterly National Accounts system (QNA).
•    Quarterly GDP statistics are subject to international standards in data collection and classification. Among the most important classifications relied upon in the publication data are: 
-   National Classification of Economic activities (ISIC 4):
-   The Central Product Classification (CPC2). 
-    The Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP.
-   The Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFS).
-    The Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG).
-   Balance of Payments Manual - Sixth Edition (BPM6).

Classification system

The following classifications are applied in the quarterly GDP statistics.
National Classification of Economic activities (ISIC 4):
It is a statistical classification based on the International Standard Industrial Classification of all economic activities, as the International Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities is the reference classification for productive activities. Economic activity is also defined as (all the works or services that an establishment practices or provides that generate a financial return for it, and sometimes the establishment does not reap a financial return from its work, as is the case with charitable organizations that rely on donation).
The Central Product Classification (CPC2):
The Central Product Classification constitutes a complete classification of products that includes goods and services. The purpose of this classification is to be an international standard for collecting and classifying all types of data that require details about the product, including industrial production, national accounts, domestic and foreign trade in basic goods, and international trade in Services, balance of payments, consumption, price statistics, and other basic purposes are to provide a framework for international comparison and to encourage coordination between different types of statistics relating to goods and services.
Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (CoICOP):
The International Reference Classification of Household expenditures.
Government Finance Statistics Manual(GFS).
The Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 is a specialized macroeconomic statistical framework designed to support the analysis of public finances. This manual provides economic and statistical reporting principles for use in compiling statistics and describes guidelines for presenting large-scale statistics within an analytical framework that includes appropriate budget lines consistent with the guidelines. Other macroeconomic statistics.
Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG):  
The Classification of the Function of Government (COFOG), which is compatible with the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) issued in cooperation with the Organization for Cooperation and Development, is one of the pillars of the guide, as it classifies "government expenditures" according to their functional nature to measure the extent to which government expenditures achieve their general objectives, helping analysts and performance monitors of government agencies evaluate the effectiveness of government spending.
 Balance of Payments Manual - Sixth Edition(BPM6):
The Balance of Payments Manual (Sixth Edition (BPM6)) , prepared by the International Monetary Fund, is one of the most important statistical systems coordinated with the 2008 National Accounts System. The external sector accounts in the National Accounts System serve as the link between the two systems, as both systems align with many recommendations, whether in presenting accounts or recording and evaluating transactions.
Classifications are available on the GASTAT website: www.stats.gov.sa

Sector coverage

The quarterly GDP statistics cover both:
Main economic activities:
•    Oil activities:
Includes crude oil, natural gas and refining activities.
•    Government activities:
Includes the activities of all government entities listed in the government's final accounts.
•    Non-oil activities:
It includes all other economic activities, excluding oil and government activities.
Economic sectors (regulatory sectors):
•    Oil sector: 
It includes institutional units whose main activity is the extraction of oil and natural gas, as well as refining activities. This sector also encompasses any establishments owned by institutional units that engage in economic activities related to the oil sector or unrelated to it.
•    Government sector: 
It includes all institutions with 100% public ownership (excluding companies operating in the oil sector), in addition to entities listed in the government’s final accounts and extra-budgetary entities funded by the general government that provide non-market goods and services.
•    Private sector: 
It includes all other companies that are not part of the oil sector or the government sector.
•    Non-oil sector: 
Total government sector and private sector.

Statistical concepts and definitions

Terms and concepts related to the Quarterly National Accounts Publication:
•    Total production:
The value of goods and services produced by institutional units carrying out production activities using production inputs during the accounting period, including finished and partially completed products, as well as products intended for self-consumption. The valuation is typically done at the product price, which represents the market value at the factory gate. It also includes the value of non-market outputs from activities that provide non-market services.
•    Market goods and services: 
The value of goods and services that are sold in the market or are primarily intended for sale in the market at a price aimed at covering production costs and achieving a profit. This includes all goods and services produced domestically.
•    Non-market services: 
The value of other services provided at a price that typically does not cover the production cost (either for free or at a nominal price). Most of these services are produced by government service providers, non-profit organizations serving households, and domestic services in the household sector.
•    Financial intermediation services measured indirectly:
It is the value of financial intermediation services provided by banks, estimated by multiplying the value of loans by the difference between the lending interest rate and the reference rate, and adding the value of deposits multiplied by the difference between the discount rate and the deposit interest rate.
•    Intermediate consumption: 
It is the value of goods and services used as inputs in the production process, excluding fixed assets, whose consumption is treated as depreciation of fixed capital. These goods and services may be entirely used up or consumed in the production process, while some inputs may reappear after being transformed and incorporated into the outputs.
•    Government final consumption expenditure:
The value of what the public government spends on individual and collective goods and services. it is equal to the value of the total government production less the total value of marketed sales, taking into account that the total value of government production is equal to the total value of intermediate consumption of goods and services, the value of workers' compensation and the depreciation of fixed capital plus the mechanism of social transfers in kind.
•    Household final consumption expenditure: 
The value of expenditures by resident households on goods (durable and non-durable) and services, excluding the purchase of housing and self-construction.
•    Gross Capital Formation: 
It is the value of fixed capital formation plus the change in inventory.
•    Gross Fixed Capital Formation:
It is the sum of the value of what producers hold of fixed assets, minus the value of fixed assets excluded by the producers (additions - disposals) during the accounting period, which are used in production for more than one year. Among these assets are housing, buildings and other structures, machinery and equipment, intellectual property products, and productive plants and animals. Gross fixed capital formation also includes expenditure on services that add to the value of non-produced assets, such as land improvements, forest development, and planting trees and orchards. Additionally, costs incurred when purchasing and disposing of assets (ownership transfer costs) are considered part of gross fixed capital formation.
•    Depreciation of Fixed Capital:  
It represents the decrease in the value of fixed assets used in production during the accounting period due to physical deterioration, obsolescence, or normal wear and tear. This depreciation can be deducted from the gross fixed capital formation to obtain the net fixed capital formation.
•    Change in Stock: 
The market value of change that occurs during the accounting period of stock including raw material, product in process, finished products, animals for slaughtering, and purchased goods for resale. This represents the difference in the stock value at the end and at the beginning of the accounting period.
•    Exports of Goods and Services: 
The value of goods and services whose ownership is transferred from residents of the country to non-residents and includes exports of goods exported abroad and goods purchased in local ports by non-resident carriers. Service exports include all services provided to non-residents such as transportation and communications services, insurance, financial services, franchise rights, licensing fees, and personal services. cultural and government services.
•    Imports of Goods and Services: 
The value of goods whose ownership has been transferred or the value of services provided from non-residents of the state to residents and includes goods that cross borders into the state and goods that are purchased in foreign ports by local carriers. It also includes those services provided to residents, including transportation, communications, insurance, financial services, and property rights. Franchise, license fees, personal and cultural services, and government services.
•    Taxes on Products: 
These are taxes due on goods and services upon their delivery, sale, transfer, or other disposition by producers, in addition to import taxes, which become due upon entry of goods into the economic territory and crossing borders, or upon provision of services by non-resident units.
•    Production subsidies:
These are current, free payments made by the government, including non-resident governments, to enterprises on the basis of their level of production activity or on the basis of the quantity or value of goods or services that they produce, sell or import with the aim of adjusting prices in the local market and for social purposes.
•    Net taxes on products and imports: 
It is the value of taxes on products and imports minus the value of subsidies on products.

Statistical unit

Not applicable.

Statistical population

Not applicable.

Reference area

The quarterly GDP statistics cover the economic activities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Time coverage

The data is available from the first quarter of 2010 to the current quarter of 2025.

Base period

Real GDP and seasonally adjusted GDP are measured using the chain-linking methodology of 2023.

Measurement unit

•    The results are calculated in terms of values and volume (millions SAR).
•    The results are calculated as indices.
•    The results are calculated as rates (year-on-year, quarter - on-quarter).
•    Annual growth rates (%):
-    It is the rate of change, either an increase or decrease, in GDP during a given period compared to the same period of the previous year. 
•    Quarterly growth rates (%):
-   It is the rate of increase or decrease in the seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a period compared to the previous period.

Reference period

The reference period varies due to differences in the timing of receipt of data sources during the year, including economic and social survey data and administrative data.

Confidentiality 

Confidentiality - policy

According to the Royal Decree No. 23 dated 07-12-1397, data must always be kept confidential and must be used by GASTAT only for statistical purposes.
Therefore, the data are protected in the data servers of the Authority.

Confidentiality - data treatment

Data were displayed in appropriate tables to facilitate its summarization, comprehension, and results extraction. Also, to compare data with other data and extract statistical meanings for the study community. As it is easily referenced in the form of tables without accessing sensitive or confidential data, thereby maintaining the principle of statistical data.

Release policy

Release calendar

Quarterly GDP statistics are included in the statistical calendar.

Release calendar access

The release calendar is available at: https://www.stats.gov.sa/ar/future-releases

User access

One of the objectives of the General Authority for Statistics is to better meet the needs of its customers, so it immediately provides them with the results of the publication once the results of the Quarterly GDP statistics Publication is released and also receives questions and inquiries of customers about the publication and its results through various communication channels such as:
It also receives questions and inquiries of the clients about the Publication and its results through various communication channels, such as:
•    GASTAT official website:   www.stats.gov.sa
•    GASTAT official e-mail address:   info@stats.gov.sa
•    Client support e-mail address: info@stats.gov.sa
•    Official visits to GASTAT’s official head office in Riyadh or one of its branches in Saudi Arabia.
•    Official letters.
•    Statistical telephone: (199009).

Frequency of dissemination

Quarterly.

Accessibility and clarity

News release

The announcements of each publication are available on release calendar as mentioned in 7.2. Release calendar access. The news release can be viewed on the website of GASTAT through the following link:
https://www.stats.gov.sa/en/news

Publications

GASTAT issues reports and publications of the Quarterly GDP statistics on a regular basis within a pre-prepared dissemination plan, which is published on GASTAT’s website. GASTAT is keen to publish its publications in a way that serves all users of different types, including publications in different formats that contain (publication tables, data graphs, indicators, and metadata) in both English and Arabic.
Results of Quarterly GDP statistics are available at:
https://www.stats.gov.sa/statistics

On-line database

The Quarterly GDP statistics data are published in the statistical database at the link:
GASTAT (stats.gov.sa)

Micro-data access 

Not available.

Other

Not available.

Documentation on methodology

The framework for the quarterly GDP statistics is the Quarterly National Accounts system (QNA) , and the concepts, definitions, and classifications are based on international standards.
(QNA Quarterly System of National Accounts):
It is a comprehensive system of quarterly time series coordinated through an accounting framework. QNA system follows the same principles, definitions, and structure as the annual National Accounts, in principle. They cover the full sequence of accounts and the balance sheet in the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008SNA). However, in practice, QNA are usually less complete than the annual national accounts system. (Reference)

Quality documentation

Quality documentation covers documentation on methods and standards for assessing, measuring, and monitoring the quality of statistical process and output. It is based on standard quality criteria such as relevance, accuracy and reliability, timeliness and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, comparability, and coherence.

Quality management

Quality assurance

GASTAT declares that it considers the following principles: impartiality, user orientated, quality of processes and output, effectiveness of statistical processes, reducing the workload for respondents. 
Quality controls and validation of data are actions carried out throughout the process in different stages such as the data input and data collection and other final controls.

Quality assessment

GASTAT performs all statistical activities according to a national model (Generic Statistical Business Process Model – GSBPM). According to the GSBPM, the final phase of statistical activities is overall evaluation using information gathered in each phase or sub-process. This information is used to prepare the evaluation report which outlines all the quality issues related to the specific statistical activity and serves as input for improvement actions.

Relevance 

User needs 

Internal users at GASTAT of the quarterly GDP statistics data:
 Includes some statistical departments that make use of Quarterly GDP statistics data.
External users and major beneficiaries for Quarterly GDP statistics data, include:
•    Government entities.
•    Private sector
•    Regional and international organizations.
•    Academic and research institutions.
•    International investors.
The disseminated key variables that external users benefit from include:
•   GDP at current prices (values, growth rate):
-   GDP by main economic activities.
-   GDP by type of economic activity.
-   GDP by institutional sectors.
-   GDP by expenditure components.
•   Real GDP using the chain-linked methodology (growth rate, volume, index numbers, contribution to GDP growth rate):
-   Real GDP by major economic activities.
-   Real GDP by type of economic activity.
-   Real GDP by institutional sectors.
-   Real GDP by institutional sectors.
-   Real GDP by expenditure components.
•   Real GDP with seasonal adjustments using the chain-linked methodology (growth rate, volume, index numbers, contribution to GDP growth rate).
-   Real GDP with seasonal adjustments by major economic activities.
-   Real GDP with seasonal adjustments by type of economic activity.
-   Real GDP with seasonal adjustments by institutional sectors.
-   Real GDP with seasonal adjustments by expenditure components.

User satisfaction

Not available.

Completeness 

The data is complete.

Accuracy and reliability 

Overall accuracy

Data is checked with previous years to identify any significant changes in the data. The internal consistency of the data is checked before it is finalized. The links between variables are checked and coherence between different data series is confirmed.

Timeliness and punctuality 

Timeliness 

GASTAT uses the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) issued by the International Monetary Fund. According to this Standard, all statistics agencies are required to publish data on a quarterly basis, and with a delay of not more than mid of year (90 days) after the end of the reference period. If the data are from different source, they may be published in a different frequency.

Punctuality

The publication is carried out according to the published statistical calendar of Quarterly GDP Statistics on the web page of the General Authority for Statistics. The data are available at the expected time, as scheduled in the statistical release calendar, If the publication is delayed, reasons shall be provided.

Coherence and comparability

Comparability - geographical

The Department of National Accounts shall prepare statistics in accordance with internationally established standards and methodologies, with a focus on meeting the current and future statistical requirements of users, taking into account the highest degree of accuracy and efficiency in estimates, with easy access to and interpretation of data, and comparability regionally and internationally. This is in addition to taking into account the appropriate period between the information readiness and the reference period described by this information.

Comparability - over time

 The Quarterly GDP series started in 2010 and is comparable across all time periods in the series, Quarterly data is also directly comparable to its annual counterpart. 

Coherence- cross domain 

Not applicable. 

Coherence - sub annual and annual statistics 

There is complete consistency between Quarterly GDP and Annual GDP.

Coherence- National Accounts 

Not applicable.

Coherence - internal 

The Quarterly GDP estimates have full internal coherence, as they are all based on the same corpus of microdata, and they are calculated using the same estimation methods.

Data revision

Data revision - policy

GDP data are revised in accordance with the published “Revision Policy for Quarterly National Accounts.

Data revision - practice

•    Unadjusted Data:
-    A first quarter release includes routine revisions to all quarters in the previous year.
-    A second quarter release includes routine revisions to the previous quarter.
-    A third quarter release includes revisions to the first two quarters of the same year and all quarters in the previous two years (Annual Benchmark and SUT revisions)
-    A fourth quarter release includes routine revisions to the previous quarter.
•    Seasonally Adjusted Data:
-    A first quarter release includes revisions to all quarters in the previous two years.
-    A second quarter release includes revisions to the previous quarter of the same year and all quarters in the previous year.
-    A third quarter release includes revisions to the first two quarters of the same year as well as revisions to all quarters in the previous three years.
-    A fourth quarter release includes revisions to all quarters of the same year and all quarters in the previous year.

Statistical processing

Source data

Quarterly GDP statistics rely on two main types of data sources:
First source: 
Economic and social surveys, carried out by the General Authority for Statistics.
Second source: 
Administrative records, through which data can be obtained quarterly such as: (Saudi Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Energy, Capital Market Authority, Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority, and National Information Center).

Frequency of data collection 

Quarterly.

Data collection

Data collection from administrative records:
In coordination with the Data Collection Department, to obtain the registry data for the Quarterly GDP Statistics Publication such as: (the Saudi Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Energy, Capital Market Authority, Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority, and the National Information Center (.
The data is stored in the authority's databases after undergoing auditing and review processes following approved statistical methods and recognized quality standards. If errors or discrepancies are discovered, the data is cross-referenced with the data source for correction or clarification.

Data validation

Data are reviewed and matched to ensure their accuracy and precision in a way that suits their nature with the aim of giving the presented statistics quality and accuracy. 
The data of the current quarter of the publication are compared with the data of the previous year to ensure their integrity and consistency in preparation for processing data and extracting and reviewing results.
In addition to the data processing and tabulation to check their accuracy, all the outputs are stored and uploaded to the database after being calculated by GASTAT to be reviewed and processed by specialists of National Accounts Statistics Department.

Data compilation

Data editing:
Specialists of National Accounts Statistics Department process and analyze data in this stage, some of the steps include the following:
•    Reclassifying data from administrative records so that data is consistent with standards, evidence, and relevant classifications.
•    Summarizing detailed data into key points or data.
•    Combining many data segments and ensuring their interconnection.
•    Processing incomplete or missing data.
•    Processing illogical data.
•    Data are displayed in appropriate tables to facilitate its summarization, comprehension, and results extraction. Also, to compare data with other data and extract statistical meanings.
Statistical methods applied:
GDP at market prices (Production approach):
The total value added of resident producers at basic prices plus net taxes on products. Alternatively, it is the sum of outputs at basic prices minus intermediate consumption at purchasers' prices, plus net taxes on products, which equal (taxes on products - subsidies on products).
GDP at market prices (Expenditure approach):
GDP is estimated by expenditure method according to the following:
•    Household expenditure (final household consumption expenditure):
Final consumption expenditure of the household sector is estimated by a survey of household income and expenditure, taking into account population growth rates and rate of price change.
•    Final consumption expenditure of the Government:
Government final consumption expenditure represents the production of the government sector (intermediate consumption + compensation of employees + depreciation) minus marketed sales.
Method for estimating real GDP using the chain-linked methodology:
•    One of the main recommendations in the 2008 System of National Accounts is to adopt the chain-linked methodology instead of the fixed base year methodology (2010). The chain-linking methodology is a dynamic approach used in economic measurement, specifically in estimating real growth rates of national accounts by using the weights and prices of the year preceding the measurement year.
•    Economic indicators are calculated by linking consecutive time periods together. This continuous overlap ensures a more accurate reflection of economic changes, as it accounts for shifts in production structures, consumption patterns, and the effects of price changes. The chain-linking methodology provides a more up-to-date and realistic representation of economic activities by using a reference year (2023) to connect the years together. This approach offers a more dynamic and precise representation by calculating relative changes in prices over the years.
The chain-linking model is a non-additive model, meaning that the gross domestic product (GDP) cannot be obtained by summing its components from economic activities or expenditure items. The chain-linking methodology corrects the shortcomings of a fixed base year, especially when the economic structure and behavior undergo significant transformations. This methodology allows for a smoother transition and adapts to evolving economic conditions. The chain-linking approach does not only account for changes in quantities but also adjusts for price variations, providing a more realistic picture of economic growth or contraction. Although the chain-linking model is non-additive, this methodology enhances the accuracy and representation of data.
Method for estimating real GDP with seasonal adjustments:
It is the process of estimating and removing seasonal and calendar effects from data. Seasonally adjusted data means that it does not include seasonal effects caused by climatic conditions, social customs, or calendar events such as the Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha holidays, the National Day, Foundation Day, or changes in weekend structures.
Methodology used: 
The (JDemetra+) program is one of the tools used and applied by statistical offices and committees worldwide for studying and analyzing time series to measure seasonally adjusted GDP. The (TRAMO-SEATS) method is employed, relying on the ARIMA model, which is used by many international organizations (reference).

Adjustment

Not applicable, only final results will be published.